The Pendulum Swings

I believe Europe's response vindicates my judgement.

We have the Foreign Minister of Britain suggesting that Russia be removed from the G-8, with the opposition leader actually advocating this to be implemented. We have the French President - France currently holds the EU Presidency - engaged in week-long shuttle diplomacy between Tbilisi and Moscow. We have the heads of state from Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Latvia - all states on Russia's periphery and, historically, under Russian domination - converging on Tbilisi to stand together with the Georgian President in a show of solidarity for Georgia's territorial integrity. We have the heads of NATO, EU, OSCE and UN roundly condemning, threatening and pleading with Russia to cease the most robust excercise of "hard power" on the European continent in a generation.

States which can act don't plead. Europe is defenseless to Russia's regional ambitions, addicted to Russian oil and gas and helpless on a coherent strategy moving forward. The only force which can tie Europe together - indeed, to avoid the disintegration of generational transnational institutions in the face of Russian resolve - and to confront the Russian bear is the United States.

I cannot overemphasize the dramatic demonstration of power that Russia's invasion represents. Don't misunderstand; Russia has been internally stronger for some time now. All that has changed is the merging of perception and reality. There is fundamentally nothing preventing the Russians from exercising such "peacekeeping missions", known in the West as "regime change", to protect sizable Russian populations in the Baltics, Ukraine and beyond. This knowledge will begin to shape and transform Europe, particularly a dozen nations comprising Eastern Europe, who have more than once experienced the delight of Russian tanks in the capitals, and it will bind American policy to contain Russian ambitions and nullify Russian power.

Russia will not win this Cold War, just as it lost the last. The world has changed, and so has Russia. It is no longer an empire, able to command seemingly limitless resources in pursuit of its geopolitical goals. Nor can it escape its own demographic weakness, or its need to integrate with the global economic system.

No, Russia will fail. The history of Russia is a pendulum, swinging from expansion to contraction and back. Russia will fail. The only question that remains is, what cost will the West incur, what generational challenge will we overcome, to ensure that failure and entrench it in the international system.