Monday, July 14, 2008

US-Iranian Negotiations

1) Iranians are supplying Shiite militias with weapons, training and revolutionary guards "special groups". The reason Iran has done these things is to consolidate its control over Shiite factions in Iraq and develop leverage over American forces by managing the level of violence.

What is your problem with American forces developing similar leverage against the Iranian state by supporting oppressed, aggrieved minorities within Iran? I thought you were all for "freedom fighters".

This is a complex game. For you to cast it in such simplistic, anti-American terms demonstrates a stunning lack of understanding and a palpable pro-Iranian bias.

You are way off the mainstream of public opinion in the Arab world at large, which is deeply concerned about recent Iranian assertive aggression and has coalesced behind America in countering this threat.

2) You should consider that the Hirsh article is just one in a long string of leaks from the Administration in an attempt to shape Iranian behavior, seeing how it came in a week when both Israel and the US were raising the rhetoric of war.

The next week, it was leaked that the Administration would be willing to open an American consular office in Tehran, and would invite Iran to do the same.

Obviously there are behind the scenes negotiations between us and the Iranians on the long term status of US forces in the region, American interests, Iranian ambitions with respect to their neighbors, their nuclear program and their long term security.

Public leaks by both sides are made in an attempt to manage public perceptions and gain leverage in the negotiations process.

Ahmadinejad's government is under intense attack within Iran for leading the country to the brink of war and near total international isolation.

I am willing to bet the Iranians know they will get bombed if they don't make a deal, and it appears they would rather make a deal with the devil they know - a weakened Bush - than try their hand with a new, emboldened American president after the elections.

They made that mistake before, betting that Reagan would be weaker than Carter. They were wrong, with devastating consequences for their nation, as Regan began arming Iraq as a buffer to Shiite power, and Saddam then proceeded to butcher the Iranians for the next decade.

They'll make a deal with Bush before the end of the year.

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