The Israel Option

The one certainty we have is that Israel has no intention to attack Iran in the near future. They did not announce when they struck Libya, or Iraq, or Syria just last September.

If there is one thing the Israelis are good it, it's operational surprise, and you don't get that by announcing it on CNN.

If they do strike, it will be interesting to see what unconventional twist they can pull off. There was an article in Haaretz that was withdrawn within hours of the Saudis telling Israel they would not mind seeing the Iranian facilities bombed.

If Israeli aircraft are given permission to operate out of Saudi, that would greatly increase the Air Command's options.

Let's say Iran has 10 facilities that need to get bombed (the number is probably more, but let's just say it is 10). That's a hell of a strike package to execute.

3 bombing aircraft per site = 30 aircraft.

2 supporting air superiority aircraft per site = 20 aircraft.

1 jamming aircraft per strike package = 10 aircraft.

We're already at 60 aircraft, and this does not include refueling aircraft, search and recovery helicopters and special forces teams on standby (possibly out of Kurdistan), etc.

This would basically consume the Israeli Airforce's frontline aviation squadrons.

It's a logistical nightmare. Furthermore, to what extent would Israel with to eliminate known Iranian IRBM's, to limit the damage of a counterattack? That would require more aircraft.

But this is all conventional thinking. For all we know the Israelis will send in 100 special forces guys to abduct or "neutralize" 50% of the Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians. That would do more to set their program back than bombing hardware.

For now, at least, Israel is making noise because it wants someone else to take care of this problem. I have no doubt they have operational options on the table, but they're not going to broadcast them to BBC.