From Iraq to Afghanistan to Victory

Though Iraq was the most important theater in this war for several years running, I agree with you that the focus has shifted dramatically in recent months to the Afghan-Pakistan border areas. Stratfor.com, a private intelligence/analysis service once wrote an excellent piece on the dynamics of the Afghan war. Send me your email address; I'd like to send you a copy of the article.

From my perspective, Afghanistan is of far less strategic importance than Iraq. For al Qaeda to have conquered a nation with the second highest known oil reserves in the world... we would be in "deep doodoo". Nevertheless, as the focus shifts back to Afghanistan and we draw down our commitments in Iraq, we will bring additional forces to bear on that theater, in concert with NATO. As the Stratfor analysis indicates, if you thought the situation in Iraq was bad, Afghanistan is an absolute long term nightmare.

It is no accident that Petreaus has been promoted to head of CENTCOM. He went from being in charge of the Iraq theater to overseeing strategy for the entire region. We will see if he can develop a strategy to pacify Afghanistan the way he did in Iraq, by coopting ethnic groups into cooperation with the United States.

However, it's important to realize that the war in Afghanistan is of a different nature than Iraq. The Taliban were never an international player with strategic reach; they hosted one - al Qaeda. Although our long term dream may be the creation of a democracy in Afghanistan, our priority and focus must be on making whatever deals are necessary (such as we did in Iraq) to wipe out our primary threats - the leadership team that developed al Qaeda into a strategic threat.

The Taliban don't need to go to Gitmo; they are an Afghan problem. I think the day is coming, soon, when a semi-official declaration of al Qaeda's defeat will occur, more likely by them, actually.